One prop, start to finish.
This page walks the exact research path the site is built around, using the most recent slate with captured data. Same numbers, same tools you'd use on your own — each step links into the live version.
No games on the board right now — this example is frozen from the 2026-07-30 slate.
- 01
Find who's actually hitting
Projections only matter for batters who are in the order. Lineups post through the afternoon; until a team's is official, the model projects one from recent starts against the same pitcher hand — and labels it.
Offseason right now — no lineups to read. In season this shows the featured batter's slot and whether the lineup is official or projected.Open today's lineups - 02
Read the model's numbers
Every batter gets per-game probabilities for the four core props. The odds next to each are the same probability converted to American odds with no vig — a fair-value yardstick, not a price you can bet.
This panel shows the featured batter's HR / hit / strikeout / walk probabilities with their fair-odds conversions once a slate is live.See the full projections board - 03
Weigh the matchup behind the number
The probability isn't a black box — it moves with the opposing pitcher's rates, the platoon hand, the batter's slot, and the park. Check what's driving it before you trust it.
In season: the opposing pitcher's HR/9 and hand, the platoon read, and the park factor behind the featured number.Open the matchup tool - 04
Compare with the books
A projection alone is trivia. The decision step is putting the model's probability next to what sportsbooks are implying — and only caring when they meaningfully disagree.
No sportsbook line ingested for this slate. When one posts, this step shows the model's probability side-by-side with the books' implied number and the gap between them.Open the full comparison board - 05
Check the receipts
Never trust a single number — including ours. Every projection is frozen at first pitch and graded against what actually happened, misses included. That record is public.
Grading runs after each slate finishes. Once results are in, this shows the most recent top-of-board call and whether it landed — plus the rolling hit rate it belongs to.See the full accuracy record
Lineup → number → matchup → market → receipts. Every tool above is free to open, and the methodology page documents the model behind it, start to finish.
FullCountProps is for entertainment and informational purposes only — nothing here is betting advice, and no model guarantees anything. If you choose to bet, do so legally and responsibly: Responsible Gaming. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.