MLB prop edges you can actually verify
2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. 33 Statcast features. Glass-box factor breakdowns on every pick. See exactly why we like each bet — not just that we do.
How FullCountProps Works
Three layers of analysis, updated twice daily during the season.
Matchup Model
A LightGBM model takes 33 Statcast features for every pitcher-batter matchup and predicts the probability of 8 PA outcomes.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Each game is simulated 2,500 times, plate appearance by plate appearance, with real lineups, park factors, umpire data, and weather.
Edge Detection
Simulated probability distributions are compared to sportsbook lines (vig-removed) to surface props where we see 3%+ mathematical edge.
Glass-Box Transparency
Every pick shows exactly what drove the projection: park factor, umpire, catcher framing, weather, platoon. No black boxes.
PA-Level Simulation
Not a simple formula. We simulate every plate appearance of every game with full game state: innings, outs, runners, pitch count.
Publicly Graded
Every projection is graded against actual results nightly. We never hide bad nights. Full accuracy data is always available.
Open Source
The entire codebase is on GitHub. Audit the model, verify the methodology, or run your own simulations.
Umpire + Framing
We integrate home plate umpire K-rate tendencies and catcher pitch framing at the PA level — most competitors don't.
Real-Time Weather
Temperature, wind speed, and wind direction are fetched 75 minutes before first pitch and applied to HR probability.
Today's Slate
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