MLB Player Projections

What these projections are

Every morning FullCountProps builds a home run probability and a hit probability for every batter in a confirmed or projected MLB lineup — the full slate, not a cherry-picked shortlist. Each probability is shown next to its fair-odds equivalent (the American line that probability would imply with no vig), so you can read the model the same way sportsbooks quote prices.

Until official lineups post (usually mid-afternoon ET), the board projects likely lineups from each team's recent starts against same-handed pitching, and clearly labels them as projected. Once a lineup is official, the label flips.

How the numbers are built

Each projection starts from the batter's season and recent-form rates, adjusts for the specific matchup — the probable starter's handedness and the batter's platoon splits — and for the ballpark's home run factor. Thin samples are regressed toward league averages rather than taken at face value, so a two-week hot streak moves the number, but it doesn't hijack it.

Nothing is hand-tuned per player and there are no gut overrides. The full input list, including what the model deliberately ignores, is on the methodology page.

The receipts

Every day's board is captured before first pitch and graded against what actually happened — no retroactive edits. The rolling hit rates for the top of the board are published on the accuracy page.