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San Diego Padres — Predictions Today

National League · National League West · Petco Park · 2026-08-06

How the San Diego Padres prediction is built

On every San Diego Padres game day, FullCountProps simulates the full matchup 2,000 times — the projected SD lineup against the opposing probable starter, bullpen behind him, in that day's ballpark. Out of those runs come a win probability for each side, a most-likely final score, and a projected total. No gut picks and no narrative adjustments; the inputs are documented on the methodology page.

Today's Matchup — 2026-08-06
at Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field · Preview
The simulated win probability and projected final score for this game are on the predictions board.
Projected lineup — HR odds today
Manny Machado #3 +359 (21.8%)
Ty France #4 +369 (21.3%)
Luis Campusano #7 +549 (15.4%)
Jackson Merrill #5 +641 (13.5%)
Fernando Tatis Jr. #1 +658 (13.2%)
Xander Bogaerts #6 +687 (12.7%)
Jase Bowen #9 +687 (12.7%)
Luis Rengifo #2 +880 (10.2%)
Jake Cronenworth #8 +1049 (8.7%)
Model HR probability with its fair-odds equivalent for each SD bat. Tap a name for that batter's full page.

Kept honest

Model outputs are captured before first pitch and graded after the final out — wins and misses alike live on the accuracy page, never edited after the fact.

See today's win probabilities →
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San Diego Padres home run odds today — every projected bat MLB game predictions & score simulations — how it works Today's MLB home run odds — every batter, every game Full San Diego Padres stats & roster
Model-based projections and sportsbook odds shown for informational purposes only. Not betting advice. Not a sportsbook. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.