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San Diego Padres — Predictions Today
National League · National League West · Petco Park · 2026-08-06
How the San Diego Padres prediction is built
On every San Diego Padres game day, FullCountProps simulates the full matchup 2,000 times — the projected SD lineup against the opposing probable starter, bullpen behind him, in that day's ballpark. Out of those runs come a win probability for each side, a most-likely final score, and a projected total. No gut picks and no narrative adjustments; the inputs are documented on the methodology page.
Today's Matchup — 2026-08-06
at Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field · Preview
The simulated win probability and projected final score for this game are on the predictions board.
Projected lineup — HR odds today
Manny Machado #3
+359 (21.8%)
Ty France #4
+369 (21.3%)
Luis Campusano #7
+549 (15.4%)
Jackson Merrill #5
+641 (13.5%)
Fernando Tatis Jr. #1
+658 (13.2%)
Xander Bogaerts #6
+687 (12.7%)
Jase Bowen #9
+687 (12.7%)
Luis Rengifo #2
+880 (10.2%)
Jake Cronenworth #8
+1049 (8.7%)
Model HR probability with its fair-odds equivalent for each SD bat. Tap a name for that batter's full page.
Kept honest
Model outputs are captured before first pitch and graded after the final out — wins and misses alike live on the accuracy page, never edited after the fact.
See today's win probabilities →Keep exploring
San Diego Padres home run odds today — every projected bat
MLB game predictions & score simulations — how it works
Today's MLB home run odds — every batter, every game
Full San Diego Padres stats & roster
Model-based projections and sportsbook odds shown for informational purposes only. Not betting advice. Not a sportsbook. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.