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New York Mets — Predictions Today

National League · National League East · Citi Field · 2026-08-06

How the New York Mets prediction is built

On every New York Mets game day, FullCountProps simulates the full matchup 2,000 times — the projected NYM lineup against the opposing probable starter, bullpen behind him, in that day's ballpark. Out of those runs come a win probability for each side, a most-likely final score, and a projected total. No gut picks and no narrative adjustments; the inputs are documented on the methodology page.

Today's Matchup — 2026-08-06
at Cleveland Guardians
Progressive Field · Preview
The simulated win probability and projected final score for this game are on the predictions board.
Projected lineup — HR odds today
Francisco Alvarez #4 +529 (15.9%)
Francisco Lindor #2 +614 (14.0%)
Marcus Semien #7 +669 (13.0%)
Luis Robert Jr. #6 +681 (12.8%)
Bo Bichette #3 +755 (11.7%)
A.J. Ewing #1 +871 (10.3%)
Carson Benge #5 +880 (10.2%)
Jared Young #8 +900 (10.0%)
Luis Torrens #9 +964 (9.4%)
Model HR probability with its fair-odds equivalent for each NYM bat. Tap a name for that batter's full page.

Kept honest

Model outputs are captured before first pitch and graded after the final out — wins and misses alike live on the accuracy page, never edited after the fact.

See today's win probabilities →
Keep exploring
New York Mets home run odds today — every projected bat MLB game predictions & score simulations — how it works Today's MLB home run odds — every batter, every game Full New York Mets stats & roster
Model-based projections and sportsbook odds shown for informational purposes only. Not betting advice. Not a sportsbook. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.